Mortgage Rates May Stay Above 6% Through 2028, Reuters Poll Finds

Reuters Poll Suggests Mortgage Rates Will Stay in the Mid-6% Range—Any Cuts May Come in 2027 — Mortgage rates holding in the mid-6% range keep housing affordability tight, shaping cautious buyer behavior and slower market activity while relief remains a future possibility – Shutterstock

Americans hoping for significantly cheaper mortgages may have to wait longer than expected. A new Reuters survey of housing analysts forecasts the average 30-year fixed mortgage will remain in the mid-6% range through at least the end of 2026, with only modest improvement afterward. That means many buyers who have been waiting for rates to fall below 6% could be facing another year of difficult affordability before meaningful relief arrives.

Mortgage Rates That Refuse to Budge Set the Tone

The Reuters poll paints a picture of mortgage rates settling into a pattern that feels more like a plateau than a roller coaster. Instead of sharp declines, rates remain anchored in the mid-6% range, creating a financial backdrop that buyers cannot easily ignore. That level of borrowing cost continues to shape affordability in a very direct way, especially for first-time buyers trying to enter the market. Monthly payments stay elevated, and that reality influences decisions long before anyone signs a contract. On a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between a 6.5% interest rate and a 5.5% rate can amount to hundreds of dollars in monthly payments, illustrating why even modest rate changes matter for household budgets.

This steady-rate environment creates a kind of “wait and watch” mood among households thinking about moving. Many buyers pause and calculate instead of jumping in quickly, because even small rate differences change monthly budgets in noticeable ways. Sellers also feel that hesitation because fewer aggressive bidding situations appear in many regions. Homes still move, but the energy feels more cautious and deliberate.

Analysts say mortgage rates remain elevated because inflation has stayed stubborn, Treasury yields remain relatively high, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have weakened. Mortgage rates aren’t set directly by the Fed, but they generally move with long-term bond yields and investor expectations about inflation.

A Housing Market That Moves Like It Is Stuck in Traffic

High mortgage rates do more than affect spreadsheets because they slow down the entire rhythm of the housing market. The Reuters poll highlights a subdued environment where activity does not fully stall, yet it clearly loses momentum. Buyers often face a tough choice between higher borrowing costs and staying in their current homes longer than planned.

“We’ve gotten to a point where it is becoming increasingly challenging for the typical American to get on the housing ladder,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told Reuters. He noted that the average mortgage payment on a typical home purchase now consumes more than half of the median after-tax income for many households.

Sellers also adapt to this slower pace by adjusting expectations in real time. Many listings spend longer on the market, which shifts negotiation dynamics and creates more room for price adjustments. At the same time, buyers who do move forward often enter with sharper calculations and stronger budget discipline. The market does not disappear, but it behaves more like it is idling at a long red light, waiting for conditions to change before accelerating again.

The Long Wait for Relief and the 2027 Horizon

The Reuters poll does not promise quick relief, and that message carries real weight for anyone tracking interest rates closely. Forecasts point toward potential cuts not arriving until around 2027, which stretches expectations further than many market participants hoped. That extended timeline suggests policymakers may keep a firm stance for longer while balancing inflation concerns and broader economic conditions. Mortgage rates, in turn, follow that broader path rather than breaking away early.

That delayed relief reshapes planning cycles for buyers, sellers, and even lenders. Home shoppers may rethink timelines entirely, choosing to buy when life demands it rather than waiting for ideal rates. Sellers may also adjust their strategies, focusing more on presentation and pricing flexibility instead of relying on a rising tide of demand.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Watch in a Stubborn Market

The current environment pushes both sides of a transaction into more strategic thinking. Buyers watch mortgage rates closely, knowing that even small shifts influence long-term affordability more than sticker prices alone. Sellers, meanwhile, operate in a market where urgency weakens unless pricing reflects reality. Homes that align with local demand still attract attention, but overpriced listings tend to sit longer and draw fewer strong offers. Here’s some practical advice for buyers and sellers alike…

For buyers:

Shop multiple lenders.
Compare APR, not just rate.
Consider temporary buydowns.
Don’t wait solely for rates if you’re financially ready.

For sellers:

Price realistically.
Expect longer marketing times.
Be prepared for inspection negotiations.

This dynamic encourages sellers to lean into competitive pricing and strong presentation from day one. The broader message from the poll makes one thing clear: success in this market depends on adaptation, not speed.

A Housing Outlook That Rewards Patience Over Predictions

The Reuters outlook suggests today’s mortgage market may be less about waiting for a dramatic drop in rates and more about adapting to a “new normal.” Buyers and sellers who base decisions on their own financial circumstances—rather than trying to perfectly time interest rates—may ultimately be better positioned than those waiting indefinitely for conditions to return to pandemic-era lows. Mortgage rates below 3% were historically unusual, and most economists no longer expect a return to that environment anytime soon.

Do you think mortgage rates will finally break lower before 2027, or will this slower housing rhythm stick around even longer?